I felt guilty for the lack of posts, but there’s really nothing interesting in the news.
*enter “new yorker” prose*
We are never leaving Afghanistan.
It has recently come to light that there are massive deposits of just about every thinkable mineral necessary to support modern technology. Lithium. Iron, Copper, you name it. The value of the resources is nearly 1 trillion dollars (over 83 times the value of the entire Afghan economy).
Risen makes note of two major concerns that come along with this massive discovery: the likely resurgence of warlordism and the doggedness with which the Chinese are going to pursue contracts within the country. The former promises to re-energize the Taliban and fracture the tentative alliances the American military has been working to coordiate for the last 2 years. The latter promises the exploitation of the citizenry and their lands to about the fullest extent possible. Development may allow for some Afghans to find menial jobs, but, as was the case with the USA throughout the 20th century, it is unlikely that foreign multinational corporations are going to improve the well-being of the people. Pollution, land seizures, and exploitative labor practices are all serious potential threats.
Something Risen leaves out in the article is the effect this discovery will have on America. Afghanistan presents another ground for the Sino-American showdown. If you thought we’d been too involved in Afghanistan before, look out. Even if the spiking tribal warfare works itself out and the Afghan government begins running fair elections and the people are fully represented and the government finda a way to use the minerals to promote a general rise in the economy, it is EXTREMELY unlikely that America will leave the country any time in the forseeable future. We’re not going to cede influence in a country that could potentially make us even wealthier.
We are never leaving Afghanistan.
Zoetrope: All-Story is an excellent publication. In it you can find samplings of some of the best modern writers. Please give Eric Puncher a read.
p/s- I apologize for the last link. Not sure how a random youtube video got thrown in in place of David Foster Wallace. It’s been fixed.
Maass presents an excellent global perspective on the BP oil spill, highlighting the unnoticed environmental atrocities on the hands of other oil congolomerates and calling for a move away from oil-dependence. This seems a common refrain from those with an interest in seeing an energy independent America sooner rather than later.
But do not forget that a BP boycott has local ramifications as well. Gasoline sales are not by any stretch of the imagination the only thing keeping BP in the black. In fact if you read over these figures, you’ll notice that the company in the last three years has made more in “operating activities” than their net profits. The real strength of a major oil company lies in its capacity to refine, not distribute. Boycotting BP gasoline is in effect boycotting the local businessman or woman who owns the station.
In the wake of COP15, I think it’s important to draw a little attention away from the political ramifications for Obama and the stubbornness of China. The real issue, as Klein frames the argument, is the results for the least developed and most vulnerable countries: namely the countries of Africa.
A global increase in temperature of 2 degrees Celsius equates to a 3-3.5 degree increase for the African continent. Increases that substantial in a country just beginning to take steps toward modernization could prove disastrous. Millions may be displaced. Agricultural industries, already struggling because of mismanagement in places like Kenya and Zimbabwe, may collapse completely.
African leaders adopted a very strong tone before the meeting, but fell flat when it came to standing up in Copenhagen. The walk-out was a bust. The leader of the African climate negotiating group started making concessions as soon as he arrived. They simply did not take a hard enough stand, considering the grave dangers facing them. All of the attention was sucked away from them because of in-fighting amongst the richer countries.
The story of COP15 is one of American hubris, Chinese defiance, and European marginalization. Africa got $100 billion for the next ten years to shut up, and they fucking took it. Not all of them. Some are still trying to speak up like Archbishop Tutu, but there doesn’t seem to be any indication that the content is going to turn around any time soon.
I’m not sure if it was naivety or if Zenawi got bought off, but the 10 billion dollars a year for the next decade looks to me like a slap in the face. The worst part of it is the domestic price the US will pay for it. I’ve already heard some very pointed criticism from the right of Obama for giving the Africans money at all. The frame of the debate has already been set as “Should we help the Africans (through aid) improve their standard of living at a cost to ourselves or not?” This completely misses the point. The whole point of COP15 was to try our damnedest to reverse the problems that may befall us all on climate change. We shouldn’t be setting up a Help Hundreds of Millions of People with Peanuts Fund. We should be fully investing ourselves in making this a non-issue. Making a climate change dichotomy between the African charity drive and the struggle to wrestle China into doing anything we ask destroys any chance at solving the problem.
All week Obama has said he’d rather come home with something crude and nascent than come home with nothing, but for Africa Desmond Tutu puts it best. “It’s better to have no deal than to have a bad deal.” This climate deal is awful. It makes climate change an even hotter button issue, politicizes common sense measures to preserve our future, and sells Africa down the stream.
My prediction: This is not the end of attempts at global cooperation, but it is the last time China or the US will have any shred of credibility in the discussions. Their clash may draw some media attention, but within the decade, Brazil and India and the strongest voices for change in Europe will have to carry much more of the burden to get anything legitimate done. I don’t think we can rely on the two top producers or their victims to lead the charge on anything soon.
