In the wake of COP15, I think it’s important to draw a little attention away from the political ramifications for Obama and the stubbornness of China. The real issue, as Klein frames the argument, is the results for the least developed and most vulnerable countries: namely the countries of Africa.
A global increase in temperature of 2 degrees Celsius equates to a 3-3.5 degree increase for the African continent. Increases that substantial in a country just beginning to take steps toward modernization could prove disastrous. Millions may be displaced. Agricultural industries, already struggling because of mismanagement in places like Kenya and Zimbabwe, may collapse completely.
African leaders adopted a very strong tone before the meeting, but fell flat when it came to standing up in Copenhagen. The walk-out was a bust. The leader of the African climate negotiating group started making concessions as soon as he arrived. They simply did not take a hard enough stand, considering the grave dangers facing them. All of the attention was sucked away from them because of in-fighting amongst the richer countries.
The story of COP15 is one of American hubris, Chinese defiance, and European marginalization. Africa got $100 billion for the next ten years to shut up, and they fucking took it. Not all of them. Some are still trying to speak up like Archbishop Tutu, but there doesn’t seem to be any indication that the content is going to turn around any time soon.
I’m not sure if it was naivety or if Zenawi got bought off, but the 10 billion dollars a year for the next decade looks to me like a slap in the face. The worst part of it is the domestic price the US will pay for it. I’ve already heard some very pointed criticism from the right of Obama for giving the Africans money at all. The frame of the debate has already been set as “Should we help the Africans (through aid) improve their standard of living at a cost to ourselves or not?” This completely misses the point. The whole point of COP15 was to try our damnedest to reverse the problems that may befall us all on climate change. We shouldn’t be setting up a Help Hundreds of Millions of People with Peanuts Fund. We should be fully investing ourselves in making this a non-issue. Making a climate change dichotomy between the African charity drive and the struggle to wrestle China into doing anything we ask destroys any chance at solving the problem.
All week Obama has said he’d rather come home with something crude and nascent than come home with nothing, but for Africa Desmond Tutu puts it best. “It’s better to have no deal than to have a bad deal.” This climate deal is awful. It makes climate change an even hotter button issue, politicizes common sense measures to preserve our future, and sells Africa down the stream.
My prediction: This is not the end of attempts at global cooperation, but it is the last time China or the US will have any shred of credibility in the discussions. Their clash may draw some media attention, but within the decade, Brazil and India and the strongest voices for change in Europe will have to carry much more of the burden to get anything legitimate done. I don’t think we can rely on the two top producers or their victims to lead the charge on anything soon.