We are never leaving Afghanistan.

It has recently come to light that there are massive deposits of just about every thinkable mineral necessary to support modern technology. Lithium. Iron, Copper, you name it. The value of the resources is nearly 1 trillion dollars (over 83 times the value of the entire Afghan economy).

Risen makes note of two major concerns that come along with this massive discovery: the likely resurgence of warlordism and the doggedness with which the Chinese are going to pursue contracts within the country. The former promises to re-energize the Taliban and fracture the tentative alliances the American military has been working to coordiate for the last 2 years. The latter promises the exploitation of the citizenry and their lands to about the fullest extent possible. Development may allow for some Afghans to find menial jobs, but, as was the case with the USA throughout the 20th century, it is unlikely that foreign multinational corporations are going to improve the well-being of the people. Pollution, land seizures, and exploitative labor practices are all serious potential threats. 

Something Risen leaves out in the article is the effect this discovery will have on America. Afghanistan presents another ground for the Sino-American showdown. If you thought we’d been too involved in Afghanistan before, look out. Even if the spiking tribal warfare works itself out and the Afghan government begins running fair elections and the people are fully represented and the government finda a way to use the minerals to promote a general rise in the economy, it is EXTREMELY unlikely that America will leave the country any time in the forseeable future. We’re not going to cede influence in a country that could potentially make us even wealthier.

We are never leaving Afghanistan.